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Doubly Robust Estimator / TMLE via simulation

  • 1.  Doubly Robust Estimator / TMLE via simulation

    Fellow of IDSA
    Posted 11-18-2025 11:39 AM

    TL;DR: Wrote a blog post exploring TMLE's "doubly robust" property through simulations. Finally got my head around how it works - basically gives you two chances to get it right (either outcome OR treatment model). Tested it with logistic regression + XGBoost and compared bias/variance across different model specifications. XGBoost + TMLE did pretty well at capturing complex relationships without manual specification.

    https://www.kenkoonwong.com/blog/tmle/

    Still learning here - would love feedback! Got some great input from Frank Harrell suggesting I examine 95% CI coverage, so I'm rerunning the simulations now. More to come on that front.

    Has anyone actually applied TMLE in real-world observational data (not just sims)? Curious how it holds up when you don't know the true DGP. Any gotchas or tips appreciated!



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    Ken Koon Wong MD
    Faculty
    Cleveland Clinic Akron General
    Akron OH
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